• China Manufacturing PMI for April 2007 was 58.6%, rising 2.5 percentage points from last month.
• Output, New Orders, New Export Orders, Purchases of Inputs and Input Prices Indices were at above 60%.
• Input Prices Index, having been rising for 4 consecutive months, reached the highest point since last year, and close to the record high in 2005.
According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), the China Manufacturing PMI in April 2007 was 58.6%, gaining 2.5 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI has stayed above 50% since January 2005.
The indices of the current month’s China Manufacturing PMI are generally high. With the exception of Stocks of Finished Goods Index, which was lower than 50%, the remaining indices were higher than 50%, the highest being Output, New Orders, New Export Orders, Purchases of Inputs and Input Prices Indices, which surpassed 60%. Compared to the previous month, all indices exhibit an upward trend, except for Backlog of Orders, Imports and Stock of Major Inputs Indices which fell; In particular, output, New Orders and Input Prices rose by a sharp 4 percentage points.
According to Zhang Liqun, our contributing analyst, “The prominent industrial growth experienced in the first quarter is mainly attributed to high export growth, driven by the rush export of those high energy consumption, high pollution and resource-processing products. At present, such high export growth driven by special factors appears to have tapered off, and should cease to continue as the export policies regarding such high energy consumption, high pollution and resources processing type of products were adjusted. At the same time, consumption demand is playing a bigger role in driving the economic growth, while investment growth is relatively stable. Overall, economic growth should exhibit a stable trend instead of continuing to grow on the basis of the first quarter. Regarding the continuous rise of PMI in April, more observations are needed, as it is hard for us to take this as the premise on which we could conclude that the economic growth rate will continue its climb.”
Among the 20 industries, except for “Oil Refining & Coking”, the PMIs of the remaining 19 industries were higher than 50%, within which, 7 industries, namely “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Non-metal Minerals”, “Specialised Machinery”, Papermaking, Printing, Stationeries & Sporting goods”, “General Machinery” and “Metal Products” saw their indices exceeding 60%. Based on the registration status of enterprises, the indices for “Limited Liability Corporations” and “Shareholding Corporations Ltd” were close, at 59.1% and 59% respectively; “Foreign-invested Enterprises” was 57.6%, and “State-owned Enterprises” was a bit lower, at 56.3%. By region, the indices for the Western and Eastern regions were higher, at 59% and 58.9% respectively; the Central Region’s was slightly lower, at 57.5%. Based on the three major economic zones, the indices for the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta were close, at 59.4% and 59.6%, while the index for the
Output Index
Output Index for April 2007 was 65.5%, rising 4.8 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, only the indices for “Wood Processing & Furniture” and “Oil Refining & Coking” were lower than 50%. Among the remaining 18 industries whose indices were higher than 50%, 7 recorded indices above 70%. These were “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Metal Products”, “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”, “Papermaking, Printing, Stationeries & Sporting goods”, “General Machinery”, “Non-metal Minerals” and “Specialised Machinery”. By region, all indices for the Eastern, Central and Western regions were greater than 60%, at between 63.3% and 66.4%. Similarly, the indices for the three major economic zones were also relatively high, at between 65.4% and 67.7%. By end-use category, the index for “Producer goods” was the highest, at 72.8%; “Intermediate goods” and “Consumer goods” were close, at 64.9% and 66.1% respectively; “Raw materials & energy” was lower, at 59.5%.
New Orders Index
The New Orders Index for April 2007 was 65.1%, a gain of 4.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the highest in the past 7 months. Among the 20 industries, 18 industries recorded indices higher than 50%, while the indices of 16 industries exceeded 60%, led by 4 industries, namely “Non-metal Minerals”, “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”, “Papermaking, Printing, Stationeries & Sporting goods” and “General Machinery” saw their indices higher than 70%. By region, there was little difference between the indices of the Eastern, Central and Western regions, as all were between 63% and 66%. The indices of all the three major economic zones surpassed the 60%-mark, at between 64.5% and 66.4%. By end-use category, the index for “Producer goods” was the highest, at 70.6%, followed by “Intermediate goods”, at 66.5%; “Raw materials & Energy” and “Consumer goods” were close, at 62.2% and 63.6% respectively.
New Export Orders Index
The New Export Orders Index for April 2007 was 62.3%, edging up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, only the indices of “Smelting of Non-ferrous Metals” and “Oil Refining & Coking” were lower than 50%, while the indices of the remaining 18 industries were higher than 50%. Within the 13 industries whose indices were above 60%, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products” was the highest, with an index exceeding 80%. By region, the index for the Western Region was the highest, at 64.1%, while those of the Eastern and Central region were close, being 62.1% and 62.3% respectively. Based on the three major economic zones, the index for the Pearl River Delta was the highest, at 64.8%, while the indices for the Yangtze River Delta and the
Backlog of Orders Index
The Backlog of Orders Index for April 2007 was 53.3%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, the indices of 15 industries were higher than 50%, the leader of which was “Metal Products”, whose index was greater than 60%. “Tobacco” was at the 50% critical level, while 4 industries, namely “Smelting of Ferrous Metals”, “Food”, “Smelting of Non-ferrous Metals” and “Pharmaceutical” saw their indices lower than 50%. By region, the index for the Western Region was the highest, at 54.9%, followed by the Eastern region, at 53.4%; the lowest being the Central Region, at 52.4%. Based on the three economic regions, the Pearl River Delta recorded the highest index of 57.2%, followed by the
Stocks of Finished Goods Index
The Stocks of Finished Goods Index for April 2007 was 46.8%, after having gained 1 percentage point from the previous month. The index has stayed below 50% since January 2005. By industry, 6 of the 20 industries, namely “Metal Products”, “Pharmaceutical”, “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products’, “Communication, IT & Electronics Equipment” and “Beverage” saw their indices above 50%; “Tobacco” was at the 50% critical level, while the indices of the remaining 13 industries were lower than 50%, the lowest being “Specialised Machinery”, “Chemical Fibre, Rubber & Plastics” and “Wood Processing & Furniture”, whose indices were under 40%. By region, the index for the Western Region was the lowest, at 43.9%; next was the Eastern Region, at 46.5%, while the Central Region was relatively higher, at 48.9%. The indices of the three major economic regions saw little difference, as all were between 46% and 48%. By end-use category, the index for “Producer goods” was higher than 50%, while the remaining three categories were lower than 50%, at between 42.4% and 48%.
Purchases of Inputs Index
The Purchases of Inputs Index for April 2007 was 63.4%, rising 2.9 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, the indices for all 20 industries were higher than 50%, among which the indices of 14 industries were higher than 60%, the leaders being “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products” and “General Machinery” whose indices were higher than 70%, at 79.8%, 73.9% and 71.6% respectively. By region, the indices for the Eastern, Central and Western regions all exceeded 60%, at between 62.9% and 65.3%. Based on the three major economic zones, the indices for the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta were higher, at 64.3% and 64.1% respectively, while the
Imports Index
The Imports Index for April 2007 was 56.3%, losing 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. 15 of the 20 industries saw their indices higher than 50%, the 5 leading industries being “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”, “Garment, Footwear & Related Product”, “Communication, IT & Electronics Equipment”, “General Machinery” and “Specialised Machinery”, with indices higher than 60%. 5 industries, being “Non-metal Minerals”, “Metal Products”, “Textile”, “Tobacco” and “Smelting of Non-ferrous Metals” had indices lower than 50%. By region, the indices for the Eastern and Central regions were higher, at 56.8% and 56.1%; the Western region was lower, at 53.5%. Based on the three major economic zones, the Pearl River Delta recorded the highest index, at 63.6%, while the indices of the Yangtze River Delta and the
Input Prices Index
The Input Prices Index for April 2007 was 64.9%, a leap of 6.6 percentage points from the previous month. The index has been rising for 4 consecutive months since the beginning of this year, and is currently the highest since January last year, close to the record high in 2005. By industry, only the index for “Communication, IT & Electronics Equipment” within the 20 industries was slightly lower than 50%. Within the remaining 19 industries whose indices were higher than 50%, 16 recorded higher-than-60% indices, and of which 4 industries, namely “Smelting of Ferrous Metals”, “Metal Products”, “General Machinery” and “Electrical Machinery & Equipment” saw their indices surpassing the 70% mark. In particular, “Smelting of Ferrous Metals” was the highest, reaching 79.8%. By region, the indices for the Western and Central regions were higher, at 66.5% and 66.1%, while the Eastern Region saw a lower index of 64.1%. Based on the three major economic zones, the indices for the Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Sea region were higher than 60%, the respective indices being 66.2% and 63.2%, while that of the Pearl River Delta was slightly lower, at 59.8%. By end-use category, “Raw materials & energy was the highest, with an index of 72.2%, while the remaining three categories were close, having indices between 62.3% and 64.3%.
Stocks of Major Inputs Index
The Stocks of Major Inputs Index for April 2007 was 50.3%, a drop of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Within the 20 industries, 12 industries, including “Wood Processing & Furniture”, “Food” and “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”, recorded indices higher than 50%, the highest being “Wood Processing & Furniture”, at 63.2%. The indices of the remaining 8 industries were lower than 50%, the lowest being “Smelting of Ferrous Metals”, which is under 40%. By region, the indices of the Western and Central regions were greater than 50%, at 53.6% and 51.4% respectively, while that of the Eastern region was lower than 50%, being 49.3%. Based on the three major economic zones, the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta saw their indices higher than 50%, at 53.5% and 50.3% respectively, while the index of the
Employment Index
The Employment Index for April 2007 was 52.4%, edging up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, 12 recorded indices greater than 50%, the leader being “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”, whose index exceeded 60%, at 64%. The indices of three industries, namely “Oil Refining & Coking”, “Pharmaceutical” and “Communication, IT & Electronics Equipment” were at the 50% critical level, while those of “Smelting of Ferrous Metals”, “Chemical Fibre, Rubber & Plastics”, “Food”, “Tobacco” and “Wood Processing & Furniture” were lower than 50%. By region, there was little difference between the three regions, whose indices were between 52.3% and 52.8%. Based on the three major economic zones, the index for the Yangtze River Delta was slightly higher, at 53.3%, while those of the Pearl River Delta and
Suppliers’ Delivery Time Index
The Suppliers’ Delivery Time Index for April 2007 was 51.9%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, 11 out of the 20 industries, including “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Electrical Machinery & Equipment” and “Transport Equipment” saw their indices higher than 50%, while industries with indices at the 50% critical level included “Beverage”, “Chemicals”, “Smelting of Non-ferrous Metals”, “General Machinery” and “Communication, IT & Electronics Equipment”. “Smelting of Ferrous Metals”, “Oil Refining & Coking”, “Special Machinery” and “Wood Processing & Furniture” were 4 industries whose indices were lower than 50%. By region, the indices of the Eastern, Central and Western regions, as well as those of the three major economic zones were close, at between 51.5% and 53%. By end-use category, “Producer goods” and “Consumer goods” saw higher indices of 53.4% and 52.4% respectively; the indices of “Raw materials & energy” and “Intermediate goods” were close, at around 51%.
Coal, crude oil, heavy oil, selected steel products, stainless steel, iron ore fines, iron ore, copper, Copper products, aluminum products, rubber, wood pulp, soya-bean oil, tobacco etc.
