• China Manufacturing PMI for August was 54%, up 0.7 percentage points from last month.
• Output, New Orders, New Export Orders, Purchases of Inputs and Input Prices Indices were greater than 55%.
• Input Prices Index rebounded after losing ground for the previous two months, returning above 60%.
According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), the China Manufacturing PMI in August 2007 was 54%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI has stayed above 50% since January 2005.
Among all the China Manufacturing PMIs for the month, only Backlog of Orders and Stocks of Finished Goods indices were under 50%. For the remaining indices, the higher indices were seen in Output, New Orders, New Export Orders, Purchases of Inputs and Input Prices, which were above 55%. Compared to the previous month, the trend showed a dip in the Stocks of Finished Goods, Stocks of Major Inputs and Suppliers’ Delivery Time indices; otherwise, the remaining indices regained ground to different extents, with Input Prices Index making the largest comeback of more than 4 percentage points, while the rest of the indices showed a more measured recovery within a 2 percentage point range.
According to Zhang Liqun, our contributing analyst, “The slight rebound of the August PMI may be attributed to the index’s certain characteristics. Looking at the figures since 2005, PMIs had a downward trend during the first half of the year and returned higher from July onwards. From a macro-economic perspective, I believe that
Among the 20 industries, only 3 industries, i.e. “Chemicals”, “Transport Equipment” and “Oil Refining & Coking”, returned with PMIs lower than 50%, while those of the remaining 17 industries were between 50.7% and 59.2%. Based on the registration status of enterprises, “Foreign-invested Enterprises” and “Shareholding Corporations Ltd” showed higher PMIs of 55.2% and 54.6% respectively, while “Limited Liability Corporations” was 53%; “State-owned Enterprises”, the lowest among all, had a PMI of 51.8%. By region, the index for the Eastern Region was the highest, at 54.6%, followed by the Western Region, at 53.5%; the Central was the lowest, at 52.7%. Based on the three major economic zones, the Pearl River Delta returned with the highest PMI of 58.2%; next was the Yangtze River Delta, at 55%; and the
Output Index
Output Index for August 2007 was 57.1%, rising 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, “Chemicals”, “Oil Refining & Coking” and “Transport Equipment” were the only 3 industries whose indices were below 50%. Of the remaining 17 industries, “Communications, IT & Electronic Equipment”, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Metal Products”, “Textiles”, “Wood Processing & Furniture”, “Food”, “Papermaking, Printing, Stationeries & Sporting goods”, “Specialised Machinery” and “Non-metal Minerals” were the 9 industries with indices greater than 60%. By region, the indices of the Eastern and Western regions did better, their respective figures being 58.5% and 57.8%, while the Central Region’s index was the lowest, at 53%. Based on the three major economic zones, the Yangtze Rive Delta and the Pearl River Delta saw their indices above the 60% level, at 60.2% and 62.4% respectively, while the
New Orders Index
The New Orders Index for August 2007 was 56.3%, edging up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. “Chemicals”, “Transport Equipment”, “Wood Processing & Furniture” and “Oil Refining & Coking” were the only 4 among the 20 industries with indices lower than 50%. Among the remaining 16 industries with higher-than-50% indices, “Metal Products”, “Specialised Machinery”, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Communication, IT & Electronic Equipment”, “Food” and “Papermaking, Printing, Stationeries & Sporting goods” were the 6 industries whose indices came in above 60%. “Food”， “Garment, Footwear & Related Products” have stayed above the high of 60% for 9 consecutive months. By region, index for the Eastern region was the highest, at 57.3%, the Central and Western regions were close, at 54.7 and 54% respectively. Based on the three major economic zones, the Pearl River Delta saw the highest index, at 63.2%, followed by the Yangtze River Delta, at 57.5%; the lowest being the Bohai Sea Region, at 55.1%. By end-use category, “Consumer goods” saw the highest index of 57.7%; the indices of “Intermediate goods” and “Producer goods”, being close, were 55.9% and 55.8% respectively; the index for “Raw materials & energy” was the lowest, at 54.4%.
New Export Orders Index
The New Export Orders Index for August 2007 was 55.2%, 1.7 percentage points higher than the previous month. Among the 20 industries, 11 saw their indices greater than 50%, within which, those of “General Machinery”, “Communications, IT & Electronics Equipment”, “Metal Products” and “Papermaking, Printing, Stationeries & Sporting goods” were higher than 60%. The index of “General Machinery” has stayed above the high of 60% for 7 consecutive months. 9 industries, including “Tobacco”, “Wood Processing & Furniture” and “Chemicals” recorded indices lower than 50%. By region, there was little difference between the regions, with indices hovering at a level slightly above 55%. Based on the three major economic zones, the Pearl River Delta recorded the highest index of 61%, whereas those of the Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai Sea Region were close, at 52.8% and 53.7% respectively. By end-use category, the index for “Producer goods” was the highest, at 59.5%; next was “Consumer goods” at 56.4%; indices of “Raw materials & energy” and “Intermediate goods” were close, at 52.4% and 53%.
Backlog of Orders Index
The Backlog of Orders Index for August 2007 was 48.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. 6 out of the 20 industries, namely “Metal Products”, “General Machinery”, “Communication, IT & Electronics Equipment”, “Tobacco”, “Electrical Machinery & Equipment” and “Food”, saw their indices higher than 50%. Among the remaining 14 industries, “Textile”, “Transport Equipment”, “Non-metal Minerals”, “Wood Processing & Furniture”, “Oil Refining & Coking” returned with the lowest indices of under 45%. By region, the index for the Western Region was slightly greater than 50%, while those of the Eastern and Central regions were 49.2% and 47.4% respectively. Based on the three major economic zones, the Bohai Sea Region was 53.5%, greater than 50%, whereas those of the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta were lower than 50%. By end-use category, “Producer goods” had an index of slightly higher than 50%, while “Intermediate goods” and “Consumer goods” were lower than 50%; “Raw materials & energy” was the lowest, at 46%.
Stocks of Finished Goods Index
The Stocks of Finished Goods Index for August 2007 was 45.7%, losing 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. This index has been staying under the 50% level since January 2005. Among the 20 industries, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Wood Processing & Furniture”, “Specialised Machinery”, “Textile” and “Communications, IT & Electronics Equipment” were the 5 industries with indices greater than 50%. The index for “Non-metal Minerals” was at the 50% critical level. Among the remaining 14 industries which saw their indices under 50%, “Food”, “Smelting of Non-ferrous Metals” and “Papermaking, Printing, Stationeries & Sporting goods” were the 3 industries returning with indices below 40%. By region, the indices for the Eastern, Central and Western regions were lower than 50%. Based on the three major economic zones, the index for the Pearl River Delta was at the 50% critical level, while those of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta were below 50%. By end-use category, all four product categories were below the 50%, at between 44.6% and 48.5%.
Purchases of Inputs Index
The Purchases of Inputs Index for August 2007 was 56.1%, climbing 2 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, 5 out of the 20 industries saw their indices under 50%. These were “Wood Processing & Furniture”, “Chemicals”, “Textile”, “Oil Refining & Coking” and “Transport Equipment”. Among the 15 industries with indices greater than 50%, “Beverage”, “Food”, “Communications, IT & Electronics Equipments” were among the 7 which returned with indices above 60%. By region, the indices for the Eastern and Central regions were higher, at 56.7% and 55.6% respectively, whereas the Western Region was slightly lower, at 54.3%. Based on the three major economic zones, the Pearl River Delta recorded the highest index of 64.4%, followed by the Yangtze River Delta’s 56.4%, and the Bohai Sea Region, the lowest, at 53.8%. By end-use category, the indices for “Consumer goods” and “Producer goods” were higher, at above 57%, whereas the indices for “Intermediate goods” and “Raw materials & energy” were close, at 54.6% and 55%.
Imports Index
Imports Index for August 2007 was 52.3%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. Led by “Specialised Machinery” and “Communications, IT & Electronics Equipment”, which recorded indices greater than 60%, 10 out of the total of 20 industries saw their indices higher than the 50% level. The remaining 10 industries, including “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”, “Tobacco” and “Transport Equipment” etc. saw their indices under 50%. By region, the indices for the Eastern and Western regions were higher than 50%, at 53.6% and 52.4% respectively, while that of the Central Region was lower than 50%, at 48.5%. Based on the three major economic zones, the indices of the Pearl River Delta and the Bohai Sea Region made it above 50%, both 56.6%, whereas the Yangtze River Delta saw its index below 50%. By end-use category, index for “Producer goods” was slightly higher than 54.8%, while the remaining three categories, the indices of which were close, at between 51.6% and 52.2%.
Input Prices Index
The Input Prices Index for August 2007 was 63.0%, a leap of 4.1 percentage points from the previous months. After dropping-off for the last two months, the index rebounded strongly and passed the 60%-mark. By industry, only the indices of “Wood Processing & Furniture” and “Metal Products” were under 50%, whereas the remaining 18 industries saw their indices above 50%, and within which 13 were higher than 60%, the 2 leaders being “Smelting of Ferrous Metals” and “Food”, with indices greater than 70%. “Smelting of Ferrous Metals”, in particular, returned with an index of 81.4%, having sustained at a 60%-high for 11 consecutive months. By region, the indices for the Eastern, Central and Western regions were above 60%, at between 61.7% and 65.4%. Based on the three major economic zones, the Bohai Sea Region recorded the highest index of 64.8%, while the indices of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta were close, at 59.8% and 58.1% respectively. By end-use category, indices of “Raw materials & energy”, “Intermediate goods” and “Consumer goods” were above 60%, at between 61.9% and 69.6%; “Raw materials & energy” were slightly lower, at 57.6%.
Stocks of Major Inputs Index
The Stocks of Major Inputs Index for August 2007 was 50.3%, a small dip of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, 10 out of the 20 industries saw their indices greater than 50%., the leaders being “Beverage” and “Garment, Footwear & Related Products, whose indices were above 60%. The remaining 10 industries, including “Oil Refining & Coking”, “Metal Products”, “Textiles”, “Wood Processing & Furniture”, “Smelting of Ferrous Metals” and “Transport Equipment” etc., returned with indices lower than 50%. By region, the indices of the Eastern and Central regions were slightly higher than 50%, while the Western Region saw its index slightly below 50%. Based on the three major economic zones, the indices of the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta were greater than 50%, at 51.1% and 53.7% respectively, while the Bohai Sea Region’s index was slightly below 50%. By end-use category, indices for “Consumer goods” and “Producer goods” were above the 50% level, the respective figures being 52.6% and 51.4%, while those of “Raw materials & energy” and “Intermediate goods” were lower than 50%, the respective figures of which were 47.2% and 48.4%.
Employment Index
The Employment Index for August 2007 was 52.1%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Wood Processing & Furniture”, “Metal Products’, “Specialised Machinery” and “Papermaking, Printing, Stationeries & Sporting goods” were among the 14 industries whose indices were higher than 50%; those of “Non-metal Minerals”, “Transport Equipment”, “Food”, “General Machinery”, “Tobacco” and “Oil Refining & Coking” were lower than 50%. By region, the index for the Central regions was the highest, at 52.8%, followed by the Eastern Region, at 52%, and the Western Region, which was slightly lower, at 51.6%. Based on the three major economic zones, there was little difference in the indices, all of which were between 52% and 52.9%. By end-use category, categories whose indices were higher than 50% were “Consumer goods’, “Raw materials & Energy” and “Intermediate goods”, all being between 50.9% and 53.8%; the index for “Producer goods” was lower, hovering at the 50% critical level.
Suppliers’ Delivery Time Index
The Suppliers’ Delivery Time Index for August 2007 was 51.1%, dipping a slight 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. By industry, 15 out of the 20 industries including “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Specialised Machinery”, “Tobacco”, “General Machinery” and “Metal Products” saw their indices higher than 50%; the remaining 5 industries, being “Papermaking, Printing, Stationeries & Sporting goods”, “Oil Refining & Coking”, “Smelting of Ferrous Metals”, “Communications, IT & Electronics Equipment” and “Transport Equipment” saw their indices below the 50% level. By region, the indices for the Eastern and Central regions were higher than 50%, being 51.6% and 50.7% respectively, whereas that of the Western Region was slightly lower than 50%. Based on the three major economic zones, indices of the Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Sea Region were higher than 50%, the respective figures being 52.2% and 51.8%, with the Pearl River Delta seeing its index slightly under 50%. By end-use category, categories with higher-than-50% indices were “Raw materials & energy”, “Consumer goods” and “Producer goods”, all of which were between 50.5% and 53%; the index for “Intermediate goods” was slightly under 50%.
Coal, crude oil, copper, aluminium, lead, steel product, steel scrap, pig iron, calcium carbide, methanol, ores, coke, cotton, soy isoflavone etc.
