• China Manufacturing PMI for October was 53.2%, falling 2.9 percentage points from last month.
• Input Prices Index rose for 3 months in a row to 66.1%, a record high for the recent two years.
According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), the China Manufacturing PMI in August 2007 was 53.2%, falling by 2.9 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI has stayed above 50% since January 2005.
Among all the China Manufacturing PMIs for the month, only Stocks of Finished Goods and Stock of Major Inputs indices were under 50%. The remaining indices were all greater than 50%, the highest being the Input Prices Index, which was above 66.1% after rising for 3 consecutive months. Compared to the previous month, the indices for Backlog of Orders, Stocks of Finished Goods, Stocks of Major Inputs and Suppliers’ Delivery Time recorded little changes; the Input Prices and Employment Indices rose slightly, while the remain indices fell slightly. This drop is most prominent among Output and New Orders Indices, which lost ground by more than 4 percentage points.
According to Zhang Liqun, our contributing analyst, “the PMI characteristics exhibited for the month is basically in line with the macro economic trend. After a serious of macro-economic control measures, the momentum of accelerated growth in the Chinese economy has been basically under control. However, with the ever robust consumer demand, the economic growth is not expected to come down substantially. It should stabilise at a high level.”
Among the 20 industries, “Oil Refining & Coking”, “Beverage”, “Metal Products” and “Tobacco” were 4 industries returning with under-50% PMIs; PMIs of the remaining 16 industries such as “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”, “Communication, IT & Electronics Equipment” etc were greater than 50%, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products” in particular, has a PMI above 60%. Based on the registration status of enterprises, the respective PMIs of “Limited Liability Corporations”, “Shareholding Corporations Ltd” and “Foreign-invested Enterprises” were 55.5%, 53.8% and 53.1%, whereas that of “State-owned Enterprises” was below 50%, at 46.3%. By region, the Eastern and Central regions were higher, at 53.3% and 54.2% respectively, while the index for the Western region was slightly above 50%. Indices for the three major economic zones were close, at between 52.4% and 52.7%. By end-use category, the indices for “Raw materials & energy”, “Intermediate goods” and “Consumer goods” were higher, ranging from 53% and 53.8%; “Producer goods” were lower, at 51.1%.
Output Index
Output Index for October 2007 was 54.9%, plunging 6.8 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Transport Equipment”, “Pharmaceutical”, “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”, “Wood Processing & Furniture” were among the 17 industries whose PMIs were greater than 50%, especially “Garment, Footwear & Related Products” and “Transport Equipment”, the recorded PMIs of 72.8% and 62.3% respectively, both being greater than 60%. Indices for “Beverage”, “Metal Products” and “Tobacco” were below 50%. By region, the indices for the Eastern and Central regions were close, at 55.4% and 55.9%; the index for the Western Region was lower, at 50.7%. Based on the three major economic zones, the index for the Bohai Sea Rim region was higher at 55.2%, whereas the indices for the Yangtze River and
New Orders Index
The New Orders Index for October 2007 was 56.4%, 4.3 percentage points lower than the previous month. Among the 20 industries, only the indices of 4 industries “Beverage”, “Oil Refining & Coking”, “Metal Products” and “Tobacco” performed under the 50% level. Of the remaining 16 industries whose indices were greater than 50%, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products” did best, with an index of above 60%. The industry’s index has stayed above the 60% level for 11 consecutive months, with the current month’s figure hitting 74.4%. By region, the Central Region did best, at 59%, followed by the Eastern Region, at 56.3%; the lowest being the Western Region, at 51.8%. Based on the three major economic zones, the indices for the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta was the highest, at 55.4% and 54.6%, while the index for the Bohai Sea Rim region was lower, at 53.7%. By end-use category, the best performers were “Consumer goods” and “Intermediate goods”, at 58.9% and 56.5% respectively; “Raw materials & energy” and “Producer goods” were slightly lower, at 53.1% and 53% respectively.
New Export Orders Index
The New Export Orders Index for October 2007 was 53.6%, losing 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, 13 saw their indices higher than 50%, within which, 5 industries namely “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “General Machinery”, “Pharmaceutical”, “Papermaking, Printing, Stationeries & Sporting goods” and “Transport Equipment” recorded indices higher than 60%, with “General Machinery” having maintained its index at a 60% high for 9 consecutive months. “Metal Products”, “Oil Refining & Coking”, “Smelting of Ferrous Metals” etc were among the 7 industries with lower-than-50% PMIs, within which the indices for “Metal Products” and “Oil Refining & Coking” were below 40%. By region, the index for the Western region was the highest, at 56%; next was the Central Region, at 54.8%; the index for the Eastern Region was the lowest, at 52.8%. Based on the three major economic zones, the Bohai Sea Rim and Pearl River Delta regions were higher, the respective indices being 54.7% and 53.3%, while the index for the Yangtze River Delta was lower, at slightly above the 50% level. By end-use category, “Consumer goods” performed best, with an index of 57.7%, while “Raw materials & energy”, “Producer goods” and “Intermediate goods” were lower, with indices ranging from 50.6% to 51%.
Backlog of Orders Index
The Backlog of Orders Index for October 2007 was 51.2%, a slight dip of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, the indices for 15 industries were greater than 50%, within which the index for “Pharmaceutical” was above 60%. “Tobacco”, “Textile’, “Wood Processing & Furniture”, “Chemical Fibre, Rubber & Plastics”, “Smelting of Ferrous Metals”, “Smelting of Non-Ferrous Metals” and “Specialised Machinery” were 7 industries with indices that are slightly above the 50% critical level, at 50.1%. “Food”, “Chemicals”, “Beverage”, “Metal Products”, “Electrical Machinery & Equipment” were 5 industries which saw their indices below 50%. By region, the Eastern and Central regions saw their indices above the 50% level, at 51.3% and 52.6% respectively, whereas the index for the Western Region was lower than 50%. Based on the three major economic zones, the indices for the Bohai Sea Rim and Pearl River Delta regions were above 50%, the respective figures of which being 54.1% and 50.1%, whereas the index for the Yangtze River Delta was lower than 50%. By end-use category, “Consumer goods”, “Intermediate goods” and “Raw materials & energy” recorded indices higher than 50%, at between 50.9% and 53.8%, while “Producer goods” saw its index slightly under 50%.
Stocks of Finished Goods Index
The Stocks of Finished Goods Index for October 2007 was 47.6%, edging up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. This index has stayed under the 50% level since January 2005. Of the 20 industries, 4, namely “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”,: Oil Refining & Coking”, “General Machinery” and “Smelting of Non-ferrous Metals” saw their indices above the 50% level; the indices for “Chemicals” and “Chemical Fibre, Rubber & Plastics” were at the 50% critical level. Indices for the remaining 14 industries were lower than 50%, especially “Beverage” and “Tobacco”, which were below 40%. By region, the indices for the Eastern and Central regions were slightly higher, at 47.8% and 48% respectively, while the Western Region’s was slightly lower, at 45.6%. Based on the three major economic zones, the index for the Bohai Sea Rim region was slightly higher than 50%, at 50.6%, while those of the Yangtze River and
Purchases of Inputs Index
The Purchases of Inputs Index for October 2007 was 56.2%, returning 3.4 percentage points lower than the previous month. By industry, 15 out of the 20 industries saw their indices greater than 50%. Among them, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Communications, IT & Electronic Equipment”, “Pharmaceutical”, “Non-metal Minerals” and “Electrical Machinery & Equipment” recorded indices greater than 60%. The highest figure was seen in “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, being 72.8%. By region, the index for the Central Region was the highest, at 58.8%, followed by the Eastern Region at 55.8%, and the Western Region, at 52.9%. Based on the three major economic zones, the Pearl River Delta recorded the highest index of 59.3%, followed by the Bohai Sea Region’s 55.7 %; the lowest being the Yangtze River Delta, at 52.2%. By end-use category, the indices for “Consumer goods” and “Intermediate goods” were higher, at 57.8% and 57.5% respectively, next was “Raw materials & energy” at 55.4% . The index of “Producer goods” was slightly higher than 50%.
Imports Index
Imports Index for October 2007 was 51.6%, losing 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. 12 out of the total of 20 industries saw their indices higher than the 50% level, the 4 leading industries being “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Communications, IT & Electronics Equipment” and “Oil Refining & Coking”, which recorded indices surpassing 60%. The remaining 8 industries, including “Metal Products”, “Food”, “Wood Processing and Furniture“ etc, returned with indices below 50%. By region, the indices for the Eastern and Western regions were greater than 50%, at 52.5%, and 56.5% respectively, while that of the Central Region was lower than 50%. Based on the three major economic zones, the index of the Pearl River Delta was the highest, being 61.9%; the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta recorded above the 50% level, at 53.1% and 52.5% respectively[1], whereas the Bohai Sea Region saw its index below 50%. By end-use category, the indices for “Raw materials & energy”, “Intermediate goods” and “Consumer goods” were greater than 50%, at between 52.5% and 52.9%, while that of “Producer goods” was below 50%. （[1] 此处似乎有问题，请同客户确认。）
Input Prices Index
The Input Prices Index for October 2007 was 66.1%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The index have attained a two-year high after rising continuously for the last three months. All 20 industries recorded indices above the 50% level, with only the indices of “Tobacco”, “Communications, IT & Electronics Equipment”, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products” and “Textile” falling short of 60%. The indices for “Oil Refining & Coking” and “Smelting of Ferrous Metals” were the highest, breaking the 80% mark, coming in with 84.7% and 84.3% respectively. “Smelting of Ferrous Metals” has sustained at a 60%-high for 13 consecutive months. By region, the indices for the Eastern, Central and Western regions were above 60%, at between 65% and 68.1%. The three major economic zones showed a similar situation. By end-use category, the index of “Raw materials & energy” was the highest at 75.5%, while the indices of the remaining three categories were close, at between 61.8% and 66.9%.
Stocks of Major Inputs Index
The Stocks of Major Inputs Index for October 2007 was 48.5%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, 5 out of the 20 industries, namely “Non-metal Minerals”, “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”, “Pharmaceuticals”, “Tobacco” and “Smelting of Ferrous Metals” returned with indices greater than 50%, at between 50.7% and 58.9%. “Metal Products’, “Wood Processing & Furniture” and “Papermaking, Printing, Stationeries & Sporting goods” were among the 15 industries whose indices were lower than 50%. “Wood Processing and Furniture” returned with the lowest index, being lower than 40%. By region, the index for the Central Region was slightly higher than 50%, at 50.8%, while the Eastern and Western Region saw their indices below 50%, at 47.6% and 48.2% respectively. Based on the three major economic zones, the indices of the three major economic zones were all below 50%, at between 46.1% and 48.2%. By end-use category, indices for “Raw materials & energy” and “Intermediate goods” were above the 50% level, at 50.3% and 50.2% respectively; while those of “Consumer goods” and “Producer goods” were lower than 50%.
Employment Index
The Employment Index for October 2007 was 52.1%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month. Among the 20 industries, “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Wood Processing & Furniture”, “Communications, IT & Electronic Equipment”, “Electrical Machinery & Equipment” and “Textile” were among the 11 industries whose indices were higher than 50%; within which, the indices of “Garment, Footwear & Related Products” and “Wood Processing & Furniture” were greater than 60%, being 64.5% and 63.6% respectively. “Food”, “Beverage”, “Oil Refining & Coking”, “Chemicals” and “Pharmaceutical” saw their indices at the 50% critical level; whereas 4 industries, namely “Smelting of Ferrous Metals”, “Papermaking, Printing, Stationeries & Sporting goods”, “Smelting of Non-ferrous Metals” and “Tobacco” returned with indices lower than 50%. By region, the indices for the Eastern, Central and Western regions were higher than 50%, at between 50.6% and 52.6%. Based on the three major economic zones, the indices differed little, all being between 51.7% and 53.8%. By end-use category, the indices of the four categories were close, ranging between 51% and 52.9%.
Suppliers’ Delivery Time Index
The Suppliers’ Delivery Time Index for October 2007 was 51.6%, dipping a slight 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. By industry, 13 out of the 20 industries saw their indices higher than 50%, including “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, “Beverage”, “Electrical Machinery & Equipment”, “Food”, and “Transport Equipment” etc. The highest index was seen in “Garment, Footwear & Related Products”, being more than 60%. The indices for “Wood Processing & Furniture”, “Papermaking, Printing, Stationeries & Sporting goods”, “Chemicals” and “Specialised Machinery” were at the 50% critical level, whereas the indices for “Communications, IT & Electronic Equipment”, “Smelting of Ferrous Metals”, and “General Machinery” were below 50%. By region, the index for the Central Region was the highest, being 52.6%; next was the Eastern Region, at 51.4%; index for the Western Region was the lowest, at 50.6%. Based on the three major economic zones, the Pearl River Delta recorded the highest index of 52.3%, followed by the Bohai Sea Rim region’s 51.7%, the lowest being the Yangtze River Delta, at 50.3%. By end-use category, categories with higher-than-50% indices were “Raw materials & energy”, “Intermediate goods” and “Consumer goods”, at between 50.8% and 53%; the index for “Producer goods” was at the 50% critical level.
Coal, crude oil, copper, aluminium, steel products, pig iron, coke, methanol, glycol, sulphur, pure alkali, paraffin wax, naphtha, soybean, maize, soybean oil, cotton, natural rubber etc.
