WASHINGTON¡ªAn ongoing decline in economic conditions is continuing to negatively impact global trade, as evidenced by the most recent edition of the monthly Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF), a retail trade association, and Global Insight, a provider of economic and financial information.
This month¡¯s Port Tracker report indicates that cargo volume at the nation¡¯s major retail ports is projected to decrease 6 percent in 2008¡ªat 15.5 million twenty-foot equivalents (TEU) for the year¡ªcompared to 2007¡¯s 16.5 million TEU. This exceeds the decline projected in last month¡¯s report, which suggested that yearly volumes would be off by four percent.
Port trade forecasts in Port Tracker cover all containerized trade, not just retail goods, according to Global Insight and the NRF. The ports selected for coverage are those considered most important to retailers, but, for reasons of monitoring the potential for overall congestion in the system, the organizations look at all containerized imports, including business-to-business shipments of such items as components used in manufacturing or other wholesale goods.
The ports covered in the report¡ªincluding Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma, Seattle, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, and Houston¡ªhandled 1.32 million TEU in July, the most recent month for which data is available. The Port Tracker report said this output represents a 2.6 percent monthly improvement from June but off 8.3 percent from July 2007.
The revised declines in annual year-to-year volumes, respectively, are likely due to retailers tightening up inventories to reflect what they expect to be able to sell during the holiday season, said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, in a statement. Gold added that even though inventories will be tightened, an overall increase in sales is still expected.
